A tropical wave continues to look favorable for organization and development over the next few days. This feature will slowly move over the Yucatan Peninsula today and into the central Gulf of Mexico as we head into the work week where the storm will most likely develop.
The European model washes this low out as it moves toward South Texas. The GFS brings it up toward Louisiana and keeps it more organized. The Canadian model is a mix of the two. ATTM there’s still a lot of uncertainty.
Even if no circulation forms, parts of the western Caribbean will endure drenching showers and thunderstorms over the next few days. Regardless of if this feature develops into a depression or tropical storm, parts of the Gulf coast are going to get a large dose of rainfall during the middle of the work week. Until this feature organizes and develops, the track remains highly uncertain. And that means our weekend forecast is up in the air. Though we won’t have to worry about a tropical storm, the remnants of this system could certainly bring rain to our area Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.